Old Faithful

Your best and worst customers look identical on average.

That’s the trouble with averages: they drop useful information for the sake of simplicity, hiding the value to be captured across acquisition cost, retention marketing, and win-back campaigns.

Naive calculation underestimates LTV — high churn, high heterogeneity most at riskNaive calculation underestimates LTVHigh churn, high heterogeneity most at risk10%10%20%20%30%30%40%40%50%60%70%80%90%0%20%40%60%80%100%Customer heterogeneity0%20%40%60%80%100%Mean retention rate
Contour lines show percentage underestimation of customer-base residual value when using a naive aggregate retention rate.

Old Faithful maximizes lifetime value by focusing on customer heterogeneity: understanding how your customer journeys ebb and flow improves marketing efficiency and grows enterprise value by concentrating your customer base in the most loyal, high-value customers.

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Retention

Today

Retention work gets triaged by tenure, plan, or recent activity. Those are proxies for risk, not measures of it. Effort spreads evenly across customers who don’t need it and misses the ones who do.

With Old Faithful

A daily ranked list of customers by value at risk — with the expected lift of intervention and the cost of inaction next to each one. Built so the operator works the list from the top, not the inbox.

Reacquisition

Today

Win-back campaigns go to everyone who churned, with one offer, on a single calendar. Most reachouts hit people who weren’t coming back regardless, or who would have returned without an offer.

With Old Faithful

Lapsed and churned customers ranked by probability of return and expected value if reacquired — with how those numbers shift by offer type and timing. Spend win-back budget where it’s likely to pay back.

Measurement

Today

LTV, CAC payback, and forecasting come from averages and trailing curves that flatten the patterns that actually matter: pauses, switches, multi-product behavior, channel quality. The numbers look clean and they’re wrong in defensible-sounding ways.

With Old Faithful

LTV by cohort, channel, and campaign with honest confidence bands. Payback curves that flag channels where acquisition cost is outrunning probable value. Forecasts at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months with ranges that hold up in a board meeting.

Growth

Today

Upsell timing, cross-sell propensity, and expansion signals get inferred from tenure or recent activity. The behaviors that actually predict openness to a higher tier, an add-on, or a referral are buried in data nobody has time to pull.

With Old Faithful

Behavioral signals from your existing data, surfaced as ranked recommendations: which customer is open to which conversation, when. The who, the when, the why — each backed by the math behind it.

Old Faithful

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I’m Jack. Before Old Faithful, I worked on product analytics at Walmart+ and streaming analytics at Disney, bio bio bio

Built for the owners, operators, and marketing, loyalty, and LTV teams who answer for the customer number — in subscription, membership, repeat purchase, or any business where the customer relationship compounds.

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